Risk · People

AI Workforce Displacement Risk Calculator

Some tasks in a job can move to software. The person can still stay, if you give them a new task and a budget to learn it. This page estimates how much task load may move, and whether the reskilling budget covers the people who need a plan.

Enter how many roles sit in high, medium, and low exposure, plus a reskilling budget and a timeline. An in-browser AI agent shows the task-load that may move, the budget gap, and a 90-day sequence. No API key.

Three tiers, said in plain words

High. Most of the day is repeatable reading, drafting, or keying. Over 24 months, plan on 60–80% of that task load moving.
Medium. The role mixes repeatable work with judgment. Plan on 25–45%.
Low. The role is care, a regulated decision, or work that needs a person in the room. Plan on 5–15%.

A worked example, before you touch a slider

40 high-exposure roles, 80 medium, 80 low. Loaded cost $80,000 a year. Reskilling budget $400,000. Timeline 24 months, so the full band applies. The plan prices $5,000 to move one high or medium role.

Task load that may move: 64 roles at the midpoint. The range is 48 to 80. This is task load, not a layoff list.
That midpoint times $80,000 is $5,120,000 of labor whose tasks may change in a year.
120 people sit in high or medium. At $5,000 each, the plan needs $600,000. The budget is $200,000 short, about $3,333 per person.
High-exposure roles are 20% of the team. The band is Medium. High starts at 30% of the team, or under $2,500 per person who needs a move.
Move the sliders and the AI agent rewrites the 90-day sequence for your own team.

Your team and your budget

Counts you already know. The agent does not read an HR system.

High-exposure roles Repeatable reading, drafting, or keying. 40 is the example.

Medium-exposure roles A mix of repeatable work and judgment. 80 is the example.

Low-exposure roles Care, a regulated call, or a person who must be in the room. 80 is the example.

Loaded annual cost per role ($) Pay plus benefits. $80,000 is an example, not a salary survey. Reskilling budget ($) Money already set aside to teach people a next task. $400,000 is the example. Timeline (months) The bands are written for 24 months. 12 months shows half. Past 24, the result stays at the ceiling.

What may move, and who needs a plan

AI agent is ready. Run it, or move a slider.

Transition risk — High, Medium, or Lower

Task load that may move — Midpoint of the band

Labor whose tasks may change — Midpoint × loaded annual cost

Budget vs the plan — Plan is $5,000 × high and medium roles

In plain words — Same math, said as a sentence

90-day sequence

The AI agent writes this after it runs.

Directional planning aid. Tiers are your labels. Not a headcount decision and not a guarantee.

How the model works

24-month midpoint = high roles × 70% + medium × 35% + low × 10%.
Range uses 60–80%, 25–45%, and 5–15%.
Your timeline multiplies that by months ÷ 24, and never by more than 1.
Labor = midpoint × the loaded annual cost you typed.
Plan cost = $5,000 × (high roles + medium roles). Low-exposure roles are briefed, not in that bill.
High band if high-exposure roles are 30% or more of the team, or the budget is under $2,500 per high and medium role.
Medium band if high-exposure roles are 15% or more, or the budget is under $5,000 per high and medium role. Otherwise the band is Lower.

The AI agent fills this line after it runs.

Unlock a printable summary

The numbers above stay visible with no email. A work email unlocks Print / Save as PDF. Same subscribe flow as the newsletter.

FAQ

Does this tell me who to lay off?

No. Displacement here means the share of a role’s tasks that can move to software over the timeline you set. The FTE number is task load, not a list of people. A CHRO still decides whether those people are reskilled, redeployed, or not backfilled.

How does the math work?

Over 24 months the page uses the middle of each published band: 70% of high-exposure task load, 35% of medium, and 10% of low. The ranges are 60–80%, 25–45%, and 5–15%. A shorter timeline scales that result down in a straight line. Past 24 months the result stays at the 24-month ceiling. Redeployable labor is that midpoint times the loaded annual cost you type. The reskill plan prices $5,000 per high-exposure and medium-exposure role, then compares that to your budget.

Do I need an API key?

No API key is required. No OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google key. Results are directional heuristics with an AI agent experience: a badge, a short thinking step, and a stamp. The formulas run in your browser. Numbers stay on screen before any email ask. Email is only for the printable summary.

Is the AI agent calling a cloud model?

No. The AI agent on this page is the in-browser analysis experience. It uses rule-based heuristics. No role name, headcount, or budget is sent to a third-party model.

Are the results guaranteed?

No. Results are directional heuristics. You type the exposure tiers. The page does not read your HR system. A role in the high tier may still need a person if the work is judgment, care, or a regulated decision. Validate with managers before any workforce plan.

What should we do in the first 90 days?

The results panel writes a three-step sequence from your numbers. Days 1–30 name the high-exposure roles and the tasks software can take. Days 31–60 put the budget on those people first. Days 61–90 start the medium tier. Low-exposure roles stay, with a short briefing. The sequence is a planning aid, not a board resolution.